Psychological AI - Simplicity and Transparency in Prediction
November 16th, 2021 1:00 PM - 1:45 PM EST
Gerd Gigerenzer
Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy
University of Potsdam
Website: https://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/staff/gerd-gigerenzer
Abstract: Psychological AI is an elaboration of Herbert Simon's original vision of AI, where the "I" refers to human intelligence as simulated by a machine. By studying the heuristics that experts use and programming these into software, it aims to improve the ability of computers to perform cognitive tasks. I argue that psychological AI originally failed because Simon and others applied it to stable situations such as chess, whereas its promise lies in making predictions in unstable environments, similar to those in which the human mind evolved. I discuss cases where amazingly simple psychological heuristics make more accurate predictions than complex big data algorithms such as Google Flu Trends. These insights offer an alternative to current attempts at understandable AI, and can introduce beams of transparency into an ever-darkening black-box society. Gigerenzer, G. (March 2022). How to stay smart in a smart world. London, Penguin. Katsikopoulos, K., Simsek, O. & Gigerenzer, G. (2021). Classification in the wild. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.
Bio: Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam, Faculty of Health Sciences Brandenburg and partner of Simply Rational - The Institute for Decisions. He is former Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and at the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research in Munich, Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago and John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor, School of Law at the University of Virginia. In addition, he is Member of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, the German Academy of Sciences and Honorary Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Philosophical Society. He was awarded honorary doctorates from the University of Basel and the Open University of the Netherlands, and is Batten Fellow at the Darden Business School, University of Virginia. Awards for his work include the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences, the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences, the German Psychology Award, and the Communicator Award of the German Research Foundation. His award-winning popular books Calculated Risks, Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious, and Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions have been translated into 21 languages. His academic books include Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Rationality for Mortals, Simply Rational, and Bounded Rationality (with Reinhard Selten, a Nobel Laureate in economics). In Better Doctors, Better Patients, Better Decisions (with Sir Muir Gray) he shows how better informed doctors and patients can improve healthcare while reducing costs. Together with the Bank of England, he is working on the project “Simple heuristics for a safer world.” Gigerenzer has trained U.S. federal judges, German physicians, and top managers in decision making and understanding risks and uncertainties.